Friday, October 28, 2005
The Wizard and Week 9
His confidence is shaken, but the man is determined not to let last week's disastrous 1-6 record beat him again. So he started the week by stocking up on Wheaties, doubling his consumption of vitamins and maintaining a strict diet of Power Bars and chocolate shakes. All this while spending countless hours breaking down games, emerging only twice on the west balcony to wave to admirers who had gathered below. His Magnificent Seven can be found by clicking on the comments label.
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The Magnificent Seven
Ohio (minus 4) -- Dipping into the Mid-American Conference, eh? Absolutely. In an effort to shake his slump, the Wizard has not only jumped aboard the Bobcat bandwagon, he's driving the sucker. OK, Ohio is no offensive juggernaut (100th), but Buffalo (117th) is worse. The Bulls rank 114th in offense, so basically, winless Buffalo hasn't been able to score or defend. The man is zeroing in on is this: Ohio's ability to run the ball (30th) and Buffalo's inability to stop it (108th). Nothing fancy here, just a grind-it-out, workmanlike cover spotting a low number.
Nebraska (plus 1.5) -- The Wizard was all over the Corn last week against Missouri, and when he finally got around to switching to the game, they trailed Missouri, 24-7. What happened to that rough-and-tumble defense? The Wiz is not going to blow smoke up your backside. He’s in the business of picking seven games a week and this is an iffy one, but the points at home (after two consecutive road games) are just enough incentive.
Toledo (minus 8) -- Tough road game at Central Michigan, but the Rockets -- the defending Mid-American champions -- are an experienced group with quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. Their only loss came at Fresno State with Gradkowski sidelined. Central Michigan is young with 17 underclassmen starting. So if the Rockets mean business, then they take care of business. Plain and simple.
Georgia (plus 4) -- Everybody is jumping off the Bulldog bandwagon after Shockley got hurt, but the SEC is a defensive league. Six teams rank 16th or better nationally in defense. Eight offenses rank 53rd or worse. In other words, points are huge, and the undefeated Bulldogs are getting four on a neutral field. Florida's offense has struggled and even if it ends Georgia's quest to be undefeated, it won't bury these Dawgs.
UCLA (minus 7.5) -- The Bruins have scored less than 41 points in only one game. These guys have been clicking. Stanford will score on a soft UCLA defense, but can it keep pace? Plus the belief here is that the Cardinal are overvalued at the moment, having won three in a row. Yes, it's a road game for the Bruins and they haven't won in Palo Alto since 1997, but Stanford has the lowest average attendance in the Pac-10 at 30,217, so it's not like they are walking into Oregon or the L.A. Coliseum. We will spot the points with one of the best offenses in the land.
TCU (minus 6.5) -- The Horned Frogs have been rolling through the Mountain West and nobody has come within 14 points of them in a month. San Diego State hasn't done anything to distingush itself and Tom Craft is about to be fired. This line almost seems too good to be true.
Hawaii (plus 12) -- It takes 14 hours for Fresno State to make the trip to Hawaii. Here’s hoping it feels like 28 hours on the return. The Rainbows need this one and the general rule of thumb is to take them at home and play against them on the road. Fresno is the better team, yes, but those 12 points look very nice. The Bulldogs haven't won in Honolulu since 1994.
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