Tuesday, September 05, 2006

First Hard Data on 3-2-5-e: 18.32 Plays Lost

We have our first round of numbers regarding the impact of rule 3-2-5-e. Now this information comes to us from Marty at cfbstats.com. We ask that you give his site full credit. The man has put in a lot of work to get to this point, starting by documenting every play from the 2005 season. For future reference, Marty's site is also listed on the right under "Sponsorsed Links."

Here are the parameters we are dealing with: Every play that takes time off the clock is counted — rush, pass, punt, kickoff, field goal attempt — including those plays nullified by penalty. This is the fair way to judge the impact of 3-2-5-e because the rule was instituted to cut down on the time of the game.

.....................#Plays.......#Games.......#Plays/Game
2005 Total........121044......718............168.58
2005 Week 1........8664........52............166.61
2006 Week 1.......10368.......69.............150.26

Marty adds this note: We're talking about 18.32 plays (lost) per game from all of 2005 vs. week 1 2006. This includes games through 9/2/2006. I follow the NCAA guide of each week being Sunday-Saturday, so Sunday's and Monday's games are not included in the totals above, but will be in next week's totals.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm really bored with this now.

Anonymous said...

What's the standard deviation for 2005? How does this relate to the average score of a game? How does this relate to the average length of a game? Need some context.

Anonymous said...

I'd recommend everyone who thinks this rule is outrageous to send a message to Miles Brand - maybe we can clog his inbox.

http://www.ncaa.org/cgi-bin/staffmailform2.pl?id=mbrand@ncaa.org&name=Myles+Brand

Cool Hand Mike said...

Bet you the games are just as long. NCAA was just trying to figure out how to get more commercial money.

Jeff said...

Wanted to thank you for all of this work.

We've linked you up on StateFansNation.com and will continue to follow the topic.

We've also added some comments and links on which you may be interested.

http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/09/07/rebate-183-plays-per-game-lost-to-new-rule/

Thanks

Phil from SNF said...

I have no problem with the length of the game being shorter or longer for that matter, my concern is for what the rule has done for the quality of the game. The value of a big 3 and out to get the ball back with a chance to win or tie the game has been drastically reduced. The real excitement for many games at the end. The first 55 or so minutes can at times be likened to foreplay. ;-)

Anonymous said...

To Phil from SNF: You don't like foreplay?

But seriously, I value each play as much as any other play. I stay at every game until the gun sounds regardless of the score. I do enjoy it when there is a lot of suspense at the end of the game, but to me the important thing is not so much the score. It's the game I find interesting and stimulating.

What they really need to do is find a way to add more plays and still run 3.5 hours. Maybe cut out some commercials.

What they are doing is the same exact thing they have been doing to candy bars. You buy a candy bar 4 inches X 1 inch X 1/2 inch in a package the same size for 75 cents. 6 months later you buy the same candy bar in a package 4 inches X 1 inch X 1/2 inch, but the candy bar is 1/2 inch shorter, 1/8 inch narrower, and 1/16 inch thinner. The difference is made up by a little cardboard tray that fills out the package. That's exactly what they are doing to college football now.

Earl B. said...

Filthy bastards.

Anonymous said...

I would agree with rule proponents that 4 1/2 hours is too long for a football game. However, losing 18+ plays is not acceptable. I'd like to see stats on how long games are lasting in '06 compared to '05. Has the time come down in proportion to plays or are we just having to sit through more commercials now? Is there a way to compare lengths of televised and non-televised games?

Anonymous said...

The rules are not for the benefit of the sport, but purely finacially driven and not for the good of the Universities involved nor the athletes.

It also makes exciting, difficult comebacks impossible. The fact that the clock starts on change of possession before the first play means that the three timeouts allotted (likely for this very purpose) will not force a team to punt after three plays if they received the ball with 1:00 left to go and manage 7 seconds per play.

This is egregious as previously you could expect to get the ball back with about 30 seconds to set up for a winning score. Now, maybe a few seconds at best.

It seems offenses are forced into the hurry up no huddle far earlier than should be necessary. The changes are only of value to television execs and their advertisers. The NCAA sold its soul yet again if it ever had one.