tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post5964763018971922842..comments2023-10-31T08:24:26.150-07:00Comments on The Wizard of Odds: Art of the Cupcake ScheduleUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-32678831712850632962008-09-06T08:19:00.000-07:002008-09-06T08:19:00.000-07:00Just for reference, wizardofhogz, THIS is what a f...Just for reference, wizardofhogz, <A HREF="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=frightful/080905" REL="nofollow"><B>THIS</B></A> is what a flawed, BCS-centered report looks like. Now you can take your argument up with ESPN. Cheer!Ed Guntherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17618165280932470376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-11846327719728326382008-08-05T11:06:00.000-07:002008-08-05T11:06:00.000-07:00we all know the sec is better than the pac 10 top ...we all know the sec is better than the pac 10 top to bottom. the pac 10 is good at the top in usc but after that its very inconsistent. the pac 10 on a good year has at most 3 good teams while the sec has 4-5 not just good teams, but national title contenders. the pac 10 can afford to schedule tough non conference because their cupcake in conference. and non conference only accounts for 3 of the 12 games. in the sec we have 8 tough games as opposed to the 3 that the pac 10 has to go through.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-32977117527512592752008-07-30T08:00:00.000-07:002008-07-30T08:00:00.000-07:00Let's talk about that tough and strenuous out ...Let's talk about that tough and strenuous out of conference schedule Ohio State had to play last year to get into the championship game. <BR/><BR/>How did they ever go by unscathed with the powerhouses of Youngstown State, Akron, Washington & Kent?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-58822998497720096812008-07-30T06:21:00.000-07:002008-07-30T06:21:00.000-07:00I agree wholly with those who have fought against ...I agree wholly with those who have fought against the SEC and even the Big 12. I mean, come on, how patheitc do you ha ve to be to schedule yourself against FCS teams (Div. AA) YEARS in advance. Remember, these schedules are prepared years in advance people, not just before the season as some uneducated fans might believe. I mean, look at USC's schedule this year: UVA away, then Ohio State at home (the #3 preseason team in the country, and what I think will be THE game of the year; that's right, screw the rivalry games). But when you look at LSU's schedule, who's coach has been whining the past couple years that the BCS and voters hate them: they play schools like Tulane, who has maybe had a grand total of 12 wins the past 3 years. Oh wow, but they're traveling to Washington everybody!!! Yay!!!! Give me a break; they managed to pick a one of the worst teams in the Pac-10 to play (albeit a rebuilding one). I will give credit to Tennessee who at least had the balls to go to UCLA. I mean, no conference is without its scheduling weaknesses (the Big 10 plays AA schools, as does the Big East and ACC, and even USC supposedly plays Idaho for its opener next season). But they should keep the divisions separate, and BCS teams of the upcoming year should be required, in their 2 or 3 nonconference games, to play at least 1 BCS team from the previous season, or at least one that was ranked at the end of the previous season. I'm not questioning the strength of the individual conference schedules. But when it comes to some schools and their nonconference games, they need to, to put it quite simply.....MAN UP BITCH!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-51830595760054453672008-07-29T23:38:00.000-07:002008-07-29T23:38:00.000-07:00A reminder to check our study from last December, ...A reminder to check our study from last December, looking at nonconference travel. It's linked on the right-hand column under "Best of the Wiz." It's titled "Nonconference Travel 1998-2007."<BR/><BR/>Or just click the link below:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://thewizardofodds.blogspot.com/2007/12/complete-look-at-nonconference-travel.html" REL="nofollow">Click here</A>dawizofoddshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01773568044023211556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-6606860772272021172008-07-29T22:48:00.000-07:002008-07-29T22:48:00.000-07:00One more thing you didn't mention, sometimes the g...One more thing you didn't mention, sometimes the games that get scheduled are not of the teams choosing. For example, this season, Oklahoma originally had Clemson, Washington, Cincinnati, and TCU scheduled. Now because Clemson saw themselves being ranked highly at the beginning of this season in the recent past, they backed out of their contract for this season. With most other schools schedules filled out, Oklahoma had to bring in Chattanooga St. In your data, this makes Oklahoma look bad (the actual data makes Oklahoma look good) or other schools that this also happens to.<BR/><BR/>Also your comment about the Pac 10 being stronger than most other conferences is just laughable. Simply line up the teams top to bottom between the Big 12, SEC, Big East, and Big 10 and there would be no contest. Now deciding between the Big 12 and the SEC, quite a bit more difficult.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-15023731405635021212008-07-29T19:24:00.000-07:002008-07-29T19:24:00.000-07:00so this is a quick comment to WizardofhOgZ, who ac...so this is a quick comment to WizardofhOgZ, who actually seemed among the most cogent of the SEC supporters (i mean, at least he mostly spelled things correctly). i'm just curious how arkansas is consistently in the top 10 on strength of schedule in a 'real' ratings system "like sagarin," when sagarin's end of season strength of schedule numbers for arkansas over the past decade range from 18 to 63, with an average of 39.1? i'm all for conference loyalty and whatnot, but seriously -- this is the kind of hyperbole that always seems to spew from the mouths of SEC babes. don't spout, don't rant, don't pound the table and get all red in the face (you might spill your drink, after all). cite some numbers. back up your argument. get some data and examine it, like the author of this study has. <BR/><BR/>if you could put down your julep for a moment and maybe clear the alcoholic fuzz from your eyes, you'll see that all the author is saying is that the SEC, overall, has consistently scheduled more games agains teams that 1-come from non-BCS conferences, 2-live in I-AA and/or 3-don't have historically dominant winning records or polling presence. (oh, and that most of those games are at home.) them's the facts, full stop. near as i can tell, the three sets of data are simply presented, and if you're scheduling more powerful outlying non-bcs opponents (such as boise state in successive good years, or notre dame in many years (bowl record notwithstanding, they're typically ranked), or usf before they joined a bcs conference), then it will show up in the sets of data about rankings and win/loss records. if they're all powderpuffs, that will also show up.<BR/><BR/>you want to defend the facts, go ahead, but the vehemence of your arguments belies the obvious truth that these facts indicate that the SEC is a bit cowardly in scheduling.<BR/><BR/>and yes, i'm calling you yellow. ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-67141477853931734142008-07-29T16:08:00.000-07:002008-07-29T16:08:00.000-07:00Funny how the SEC still claims to be the "best" co...Funny how the SEC still claims to be the "best" conference, on the strength of the two past titles. Ask Cal what they think of the SEC #2 Tennessee Vols (whom they thrashed just last year). That's why SEC does not sched biggies OOC. Let's see: So Fla (USF) def Auburn, CAL def Tenn, WVU rips middling Miss State two years in a row by 35 or so... And check WVU rip up Auburn this year. And so what, give me year in the past 20 when the SEC wasn't on NCAA probation. You can't cause it will be 20 years this summer. Great. Win one legitimately and then talk to me...joe hadshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03838693973757348877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-10193432901324853122008-07-29T15:13:00.000-07:002008-07-29T15:13:00.000-07:00Hate to break it to all the SEC-lurvers out there,...Hate to break it to all the SEC-lurvers out there, but the fact remains: Pac-10 > SEC.<BR/><BR/>The louder the SEC fans get, the more they prove the point. Go enjoy Gardner-Webb and Louisiana-Monroe, guys. Should be a barn burner...<BR/><BR/>This post reminded me of a friend's post from just before the BCS championship game, who spent (a bit way too much) time breaking down how easy it is for the SEC champ to sneak into the title game slot. It's a bit long, but thorough Mr. Lebowski. Hard evidence that the SEC are pansies in scheduling and down-right mediocre in big bowl games (as a conference) compared to the Pac-10 (read: USC). Enjoy.<BR/><BR/>=========<BR/>The SEC: 6 – 2 (1 game remaining: LSU vs. Ohio State)<BR/><BR/>Invitees: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee<BR/>Bowl Invitations: Autozone Liberty (Mississippi State), PetroSun Independence (Alabama), Gaylord Hotels Music City (Kentucky), Chick-Fil-A (Auburn), Outback (Tennessee), Cotton (Arkansas), Capital One (Florida), AllState Sugar (Georgia), BCS Championship (LSU)<BR/>Bowl Invitations Rank: 1st<BR/>Overall Rank: 2nd<BR/><BR/>The thing with the SEC is that, every year, everyone starts hooting and hollering how tough the SEC is. Which is a circuitous way of apologizing for why they play cupcakes for their non-conference schedules. Don’t believe me? Here’s a list, sorted by final division standings: <BR/><BR/><BR/>SEC East: (Nonconference Record: 21 – 3)<BR/><BR/>Georgia (6-2) – Oklahoma State (W), Western Carolina (W), Troy (W), at Georgia Tech (W)<BR/>Tennessee (6-2) – at Cal (L), S. Mississippi (W), Arkansas St. (W), Louisiana- Lafayette (W)<BR/>Florida (5-3) – Western Kentucky (W), Troy (W), Florida Atlantic (W), Florida State (W)<BR/>Kentucky (3-5) – Eastern Kentucky (W), Kent State (W), Louisville (W), Florida Atlantic (W)<BR/>S. Carolina (3-5) – La.-Lafayette (W), S. Carolina St. (W), at N. Carolina (W), Clemson (L)<BR/>Vanderbilt (2-6) – Richmond (W), E. Michigan (W), Miami of Ohio (W), Wake Forest (L)<BR/><BR/>SEC East Nonconference Home Record: 19 – 2<BR/>SEC East Nonconference Away Record: 2 – 1<BR/><BR/>Cupcake Schools (10 schools, 14 games): W. Carolina, Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, E. Kentucky, Kent State, South Carolina State, Richmond, Eastern Michigan<BR/><BR/>Schools that “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (7 schools, 7 games): Oklahoma State, Southern Mississippi, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami of Ohio, Wake Forest<BR/><BR/>Legitimate Nonconference Contests (3 schools, 3 games): Florida State, Georgia Tech, Cal<BR/><BR/>Takeaway Message on the SEC East: They played exactly 1 team (Cal) who ended up being a good team with a long bad-luck streak this year. And lost. Yes, Florida State has some residual aura about them, but it was a down year for them, as it was for Georgia Tech. And FSU is showing symptoms of long-term mediocrity. Oklahoma State is hardly the pride of the Big12 and there’s nary a Big10 school on the list. Fact is, they schedule patticakes.<BR/><BR/>SEC West (Nonconference Record: 20 – 4)<BR/><BR/>LSU (6-2) – Virginia Tech (W), Middle Tennessee (W), at Tulane (W), Louisiana Tech (W)<BR/>Auburn (5-3) – Kansas St. (W), S. Florida (L), New Mexico State (W), Tennessee Tech (W)<BR/>Arkansas (4-4) – Troy (W), North Texas (W), Chattanooga (W), Florida International (W),<BR/>Mississippi State (4-4) – at Tulane (W), Gardner-Webb (W), UAB (W), at West Virginia (L),<BR/>Alabama (4-4) – W. Carolina (W), at Florida State (L), Houston (W), Louisiana-Monroe (W)<BR/>Ole Miss (0-8) – at Memphis (W), Missouri (L), Louisiana Tech (W), Northwestern State (W)<BR/><BR/>SEC West Nonconference Home Record: 17 – 2<BR/>SEC West Nonconference Away Record: 3 – 2<BR/><BR/>Cupcake Schools (16 schools, 18 games): Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech, Troy, North Texas, Chattanooga, Florida International, Gardner-Webb, UAB, W. Carolina, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe, Memphis, Northwestern State<BR/><BR/>Schools that “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (2 schools, 2 games): Kansas State, South Florida<BR/><BR/>Legitimate Nonconference Contests (4 schools, 4 games): Virginia Tech, Florida State, Missouri, West Virginia<BR/><BR/>Takeaway Message on the SEC West: They played 2 BCS teams, going 1 – 1. But in those legitimate nonconference games, they went 1 – 3, losing to FSU, Mizzou and West Virginia. And that win over VaTech is pretty weak, once you saw them roll over their sword against Kansas in the FedEx Orange Bowl. Note again the complete lack of a Big10 school. And that name-brand West Virginia game? Scheduled by mighty Mississippi State.<BR/><BR/>So is the SEC any good? Or is their greatness equal parts weak scheduling (for the most part) and some timely wins rather than any real great season-long effort? I’d say that you can’t defend the SEC that strongly. Yes, they have good teams. But like the rich kid up the block, they only come out to play once in a great while and as a result, you end thinking their toys are all the greater when you do see them. Unless of course for the times that they lose, like in the Tennessee loss to Cal. In which case, you quietly change the subject and hope everyone forgets.<BR/><BR/>Another way to look at it, is to lump the whole conference together:<BR/><BR/>Overall Record: 89 – 57 {46 – 27 (SEC-East), 43 – 30 (SEC-West)} .610 win%<BR/>Overall Interdivision Wins: SEC-East 10 - 8 SEC-West<BR/>Overall Conference Record: {25 – 23 (SEC-East), 23 – 25 (SEC-West)}<BR/>Overall Nonconference Record: 41 – 7 (.850 win%, 46% of overall wins)<BR/><BR/>Some important things immediately jump to mind. 1) Their nonconference schedule is almost exclusively home games (40 out of 48 games). Which shouldn’t be surprising, given what they’d pay to small schools to come to their home field. 2) Their nonconference schedule is nearly devoid of major conference schools (only 13 schools) or schools that ended up making a bowl berth (16 teams). 3) Their record nonconference is 41 – 9. But against major conference schools? Big East champion West Virginia? Loss. Pac10 Runnerup Cal? Loss. ACC trainwreck Florida State? 1 – 1.<BR/><BR/>Item 4) There's only 18 interdivision games, which slightly favored the SEC-East this year 10 wins to 8 for the SEC-West. This is possibly due entirely to the presence of Ole Miss in the SEC-West. But the interdivision schedules are hardly balanced. The way the divisions work, all conference games count towards your division total, with tie breakers first being determined in head-to-head and then inter-division records. So it's conceivable to lose no interdivision games and not make the conference championship (see: Georgia). And it's equally conceivable to lose the right mix of division and interdivision games and take a tie-breaker (see: Tennessee). I'm not saying that you can be a total conference dog, but if you win 4 of your division games, chances are you're in the running to for a tie-breaker. 5 wins and you're in. Tennessee and LSU won 4. Georgia won 3. The point is: interdivision games mean very little so long as you clean up your division (thereby winning crucial tie-breakers). Just ask Georgia, who went 3-0 against the SEC-West and somehow didn't make the conference championships, thanks to an early surprise loss home to South Carolina that cemented a second place finish when they lost at Tennessee a month later.<BR/><BR/>The 5th and final thing that jumps to mind is that the SEC teams EACH get 4 nonconference games. Which leaves them 8 conference games. 9 for the lucky two who get to the championship game (more on that in a second). Since there are 11 other conference teams, that means they play only 72% of their conference in any given year. But that’s not exactly true, since you must play everyone inside your division (that’s 5 games). Leaving you 3 games against the other division. So you face 50% of the other division. So, if the schedule gods are nice, you might get two patsies (pick from Vanderbilt or South Carolina in the SEC-East; Ole Miss, Alabama, or Mississippi State in the SEC-West) or a tough team at home (see: Kentucky 43 – 37 LSU). In any event, in the conference that complains that it’s too difficult to go undefeated, they say you have to win 7 conference games to lock up a spot in the conference championship. Or this year, just 6. Either way, it’s nobody but the SEC’s fault that they have a (money-generating) conference championship. Cut out one nonconference game, and rotate through one team in your division that you don’t play each year, and suddenly you need 8 conference wins to be legitimate. Plus, it greatly changes the benefits of playing Ole Miss if you aren't assured that game year after year (as half of the SEC gets now...) You get to choose which 4 teams from each division (out of 9 games) that would be. You're still able to lose 1 game. But beating exactly half of the conference PLUS one conference championship game (which may or may not be a rematch) is, in my book, garbage. And it’s 2 or 3 fewer games than the Pac10 or Big10 champ have to win to clinch their championship-game-having conferences.<BR/><BR/>Still need more proof that the SEC is geared to win one game (a gamble that USC, Cal, Oregon, West Virginia, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Missouri, etc. would gladly have then their current regular season schedules)? Look no further than Tennessee’s 45 – 31 loss to Cal for what they dread about nonconference games. Too much risk. But, in addition to those 4 patsies they “can” schedule, they get to add in Ole Miss (who could only win nonconference games), Vanderbilt (2 – 6 in conference), and South Carolina (3 – 5 in conference), and the top challengers to the SEC crown are at 5 or 6 wins before they even play a single good game, and potentially 2-0 in their division, meaning they have to only win 2 of 3 games. Don't believe me? Look at the results. Though the year was screwy in general for football, pretty much all you needed to do in the SEC was win one clutch game and then let the deck reshuffle itself and find where you sit. That's how Tennessee made it. And LSU. And why Georgia was left out. Florida choked to Auburn, and lost to LSU and Georgia. They're out. And yet, they still finished with 9 wins. Auburn is still shaking their head over Mississippi State's 19-14 upset . Two other losses to LSU and Georgia finished their season. With 8 wins. Georgia got to 10 wins. But their two losses will forever haunt them. They lost their spot to a team (Tennessee) with one fewer regular season win AND (therefore) one more loss. And both get to look at LSU preen on a national stage NOT because their 10-2 regular season record (identical to Georgia) was any better, but mainly because: West Virginia lost to Pittsburgh, USC lost to Stanford, Oregon decided to make an ambulance the team bus, Kansas lost to Missouri who lost to Oklahoma, Boston College lost to Florida State and Maryland in back-to-back weeks, and nobody had the guts to stick an undefeated Hawaii in the BCS Title Game. So tell me LSU is better. Go ahead. At least if Tennessee had beaten LSU, Georgia wouldn't have an argument. Instead, it's a "they just didn't schedule us" argument. Which is no argument for determining who is a better team.<BR/><BR/>Need numbers? Let’s take out those 41 nonconference wins, and the 21 wins over the bottom of the SEC. That’s 62 wins (practically) guaranteed. What does that leave the SEC minus the bottom feeders? A pedestrian 29 – 31. Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee have 18 of those wins.<BR/><BR/>How is this a good conference again? They beat up on weak DivIAA teams and have 3 more games against in-conference cupcakes. Given that they have 12 teams and cannot possibly play each other without giving up that lucrative Troy or Gardner-Webb home game, they play to win one game more than half of their remaining 5 conference games. Getting them to the magical 6 – 2 conference record shared by Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. It’s a joke.<BR/><BR/>Just to prove I’m not a total Pac10 snob, I did the same analysis for the Pac10. These are all their non-conference games (sorted by final conference standings):<BR/><BR/>USC (7-2) – Idaho (W), at Nebraska (W), at Notre Dame (W)<BR/>ASU (7-2) – San Jose State (W), Colorado (W), San Diego State (W)<BR/>Oregon State (6-3) – Utah (W), at Cincinnati (L), Idaho State (W)<BR/>Oregon (5-4) – Houston (W), at Michigan (W), Fresno State (W)<BR/>ucla (5-4) – BYU (W), at Utah (L), Notre Dame (L)<BR/>Arizona (4-5) – at BYU (L), Northern Arizona (W), New Mexico (L)<BR/>Cal (3-6) – Tennessee (W), at Colorado State (W), Louisana Tech (W)<BR/>Washington State (3-6) – at Wisconsin (L), San Diego State (W), Idaho (W)<BR/>Stanford (3-6) – San Jose State (W), TCU (L), Notre Dame (L)<BR/>Washington (2-7) – at Syracuse (W), Boise State (W), Ohio State (L), at Hawaii (L)<BR/><BR/>Overall Record: 67 – 54 (.554 win %)<BR/>NonConference Record: 21 – 10 (.677 win%, 31% of overall wins)<BR/><BR/>Cupcakes Schools (7 schools, 10 games): Idaho, San Jose State, San Diego State, Idaho State, Houston, Northern Arizona, Louisiana Tech<BR/><BR/>Schools the “Might” Be Good When Scheduled (12 schools, 16 games): Nebraska, Notre Dame, Colorado, Utah, Cincinnati, Fresno St., BYU, New Mexico, Boise St., TCU, Colorado St., Syracuse<BR/><BR/>Legitimate Nonconference Contests (5 schools, 5 games): Michigan, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Hawaii (potentially this year only)<BR/><BR/>This is the difference between winning the Pac10 and the SEC. Nearly half of your games won in the SEC come from out of conference, whereas one-third count for the Pac10. Ergo: Conference games mean more in the Pac10, which is why you have to win more Pac10 games to be conference champion. Usually, it’s 8 wins out of 9. And, with the nice balance of 10 teams, you play everyone, every year. This year, being as topsy-turvy as it was, 7 wins was enough. Which is exactly the same that LSU needed to be conference champion (and the same number of conference losses). The difference is, it’s far more likely to win the SEC with 7 wins than the Pac10 in any given year. Have the good fortune to be in the “weak” division, sweep those opponents and then go 1 – 2 against the other division, and you’re in the conference championship! Or even better, go 0 – 3 against the other division and you’re still in! Want to know the last time a Pac10 team with 3 conference losses won the Rose Bowl invitation? Never. Last time an SEC team with 3 conference losses was crowned champ? How about 2001? The team? LSU.<BR/><BR/>Yes, there is good football in the SEC and a lot of good teams. But in a super-conference like the SEC which has to split the conference into divisions, you can sneak through the weaker division and then win the conference championship, having never played the top teams. Or, alternately, you can be frozen out by a silly tie-breaker rule that saw Tennessee take Georgia’s rightful place in the SEC Championship Game, who then proceeded to lose a tough one to LSU. But you can’t say that the SEC is flat-out the best conference in the country. There are a million arguments why LSU doesn’t belong in the BCS Championship Game to counter the million arguments why they do belong. Fortunately, Ohio State gets to help sort that out. But in the rest of their extensive bowl season (9 total games), they tended to fizzle when it mattered most (see: Florida, Arkansas). The second-tier games were where they shined, winning all five of those contests. And while I like Georgia, their 41 – 10 win over Hawaii proved nothing to me except for the sad fact that Hawaii, though undefeated when they arrived, was not a Top-10 team in the country. They were a better fit at the Holiday Bowl.<BR/><BR/>And when you think about it, the BCS Series of bowl games is designed to get the 10 best teams to play each other, with the purported top two getting the coveted Championship Game. Yet this year, the BCS sported a spotted record of guaranteeing that the other 8 slots went to the other 8 best teams. Which is why the BCS is such a puzzle to figure out. How do you guarantee the at-large bids (Kansas, Georgia, Illinois) are the right choices? The fact is that you can’t. And with money being the motivator of the bowl season, chances are any future changes will be cosmetic. And worse, given the relationships still maintained by conferences and bowls, you still get stuck with USC-Illinois and Georgia-Hawaii when pretty much anyone would agree that USC-Georgia is a much better match-up. Wherever it would be played.<BR/><BR/>Pac-10: 4 – 2<BR/><BR/>Invitees: Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, ucla, USC<BR/>Bowl Invitations: Pioneer Las Vegas (ucla), Emerald (Oregon State), Pacific Life Holiday (Arizona State), Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (California), Brut Sun (Oregon), Rose Bowl (USC)<BR/>Bowl Invitations Rank: 3rd<BR/>Overall Rank: 1st<BR/><BR/>Again, I must admit that, as an alumnus of USC, I have a particular fondness for the Pac10. In a tier of rooting interests, I routinely cheer for Pac10 schools over any other opponent (unless the team is ucla). With the reflected aura of USC, the six invitations for the Pac10 were respectable, and the teams rose to the occasion. Only ASU (whooped by Texas) and ucla (lose on a blocked field goal attempt to BYU) lost. But no conference performed better. Compared to the SEC (who is trotted out annually as the “toughest” conference in the land, and then we’re forced to swallow it), the Pac10 was statistically superior, despite playing in 3 fewer games. The Pac10 schools +61 point differential compared to the SEC, which managed a +17 rating. Take just the winners? The Pac10 jumps to +80 while the SEC improves to +54, which is a nice jump. Yet, with three more games to play, the Pac10 still outscored the SEC by 37 points. And in the conference marquee invitations (Rose, Holiday and Emerald Bowls), the Pac10 went 3 – 0. Comparatively, the SEC went 2 – 2 (Cotton, Capital One, Sugar, BCS Championship). Yes, the SEC finagled a BCS Championship invite, but it’s not clear that they deserved it. Despite what those mouth-breathing LSU fans who continue to enjoy the shattered wit that is “Geaux Tigers!” Yes, LSU lost their two games in overtime. But those two losses accounted for over 100 points given up. That vaunted SEC defense? Not so much. But USC’s two losses? A quarterback with a broken hand who didn’t get benched despite 4 second-half interceptions (and yet, they still led until :11 seconds were left) and a tight game at Oregon with the back-up quarterback. You can argue all you want, but I say injuries, more than anything else, proved USC’s and the Pac10’s more generally (see: Oregon, ASU, Cal). Yet, healthy, they more than showed their mettle. And as I said, I couldn’t care less about ucla’s loss, and ASU did get their clocks cleaned. But is that any worse than Arkansas or Florida’s losses? I say no. Especially when Arkansas beat LSU and Florida is the defending champ. In essence, the SEC showed that their top teams are just good enough to lose (on average) but their middle of the table teams are pretty good against other middle-finishers. Congratulations. The SEC owns the mediocrity angle!<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, the Pac10 gets to notch another Rose Bowl win, continue to gloat over the early-season Cal win over Tennessee, the generally superior nonconference schedule (Ohio State at USC after each gets a few tune-up games next season (USC opens at Virginia, while Ohio State is home to Youngstown State and Ohio before heading off to LA). Or do you seriously think that a 3-game homestand of North Texas, Troy, and TBD (OOH!) is more exciting? Don't forget LSU's big game against Tulane. Or the fact that they have 4 away games (Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas). Again proving the point that LSU has, at best, to win 1 and possibly 2 big games (depending on the quality of Florida and Auburn next year). Meanwhile, USC continues to boast the impressive nonconference schedule that draws recruits (Virginia, Ohio State, Notre Dame - a team that cannot possibly be worse than the 3-9 squad they trotted out this season).<BR/><BR/>And that's why the Pac10 is the best conference in the country. Better nonconference schedule, more marquee wins, better offense, and a more difficult conference format to determine champion. Not to mention one great fight song.<BR/><BR/>Now, if only USC and Georgia had played...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-80129616833777848992008-07-29T07:23:00.000-07:002008-07-29T07:23:00.000-07:00Hey all - the SEC is stepping up!! They are going ...Hey all - the SEC is stepping up!! They are going to play the University of Washington Huskies at home in 2009! That's right, a road game, clear across the nation against a BCS Pac 10 team that hasn't had a winning season in 5 years...wait a minute - and they agreed to that this year...ummmm, well at least they are leaving the state. Yep, tough scheduling going on down there! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-17703431080588988542008-07-28T22:24:00.000-07:002008-07-28T22:24:00.000-07:00This study shows the SEC teams have to answer for ...This study shows the SEC teams have to answer for more than one problem here: the first chart shows that 5 SEC teams are among the worst offenders at failing to schedule BCS-conference foes; the second chart shows that 7 SEC teams are worst at playing nonconference games on the road (and this study doesn't show it, of course, but most followers of college football know that these road games are almost never outside the south). <BR/><BR/>So many SEC teams eschew playing BCS-conference opponents, and also don't like to play nonconference games on the road (it'd be interesting to see how often they played BCS-caliber teams ON THE ROAD). If the SEC only showed up on one of these dimensions, it might be explainable; the fact that they shirk such games on BOTH dimensions is cowardly.<BR/><BR/>Contrast this with the Pac-10, which on those two charts has only one team (Oregon St.). <BR/><BR/>Sidenote: since a year or two ago, the Pac-10 opted to play a 9th conference game, leaving each of its teams with only 3 nonconference games. This (henceforth) makes trouble for charts like 2, which count numbers (not percentages) of nonconference games. <BR/><BR/>This is relevant to the overall point against SEC teams: since they have a total of FOUR nonconference games to work with, the least they could do is schedule 2 decent opponents, one of them on the road. If, from now on, the SEC continues to outperform the Pac-10 in nonconference cowardice, they are even more to blame, since they are working with 4 instead of 3 nonconference games.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-36383164198648103692008-07-28T20:47:00.000-07:002008-07-28T20:47:00.000-07:00'SC vs SEC recently (17-10-1 alltime)2002 Auburn ...'SC vs SEC recently (17-10-1 alltime)<BR/>2002 Auburn W 24-17<BR/>2003 at #6 Auburn W 23-0 <BR/>2005 Arkansas W 70-17<BR/>2006 at Arkansas W 50-14<BR/><BR/>And the only reason 'SC's strength of schedule was so low in 03 was 'cuz Auburn tanked after getting stomped by 'SC to start the season.<BR/><BR/>'SC had few routs comparable to these in the PAC-10 and these aren't the bottom feeders of the SEC.<BR/><BR/>To reiterate Ed's point, not all BCS schools are better than all non-BCS schools in a given year, but statistically BCS schools tend to be better. <BR/><BR/>Which just goes to show what they say about statistics...<BR/><BR/>Then again, a team that goes 5-7 in the BCS may be better than a team that goes 7-5 in the WAC and goes to a bowl game...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-31661935142749054732008-07-28T20:41:00.000-07:002008-07-28T20:41:00.000-07:00SEC sucks balls!!!!SEC sucks balls!!!!Elliott Goodrichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09980027226873041109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-65931130328663798422008-07-28T19:11:00.000-07:002008-07-28T19:11:00.000-07:00first of all i give credit for the pac 10 scheduli...first of all i give credit for the pac 10 scheduling tough non conference schedules and thats coming from an sec fan. i do admit the sec schedules non conference but heres thing... the pac 10 can afford to schedule tough non conference because they play in a weak conference, nowhere near as tough as the sec. non conference only accounts for 3 of their 12 games. here in the sec we actually have to play non high school in conference opponents that account for 8 games as opposed to the 3 tough opponents that the pac 10 has to play. so because the sec is so much tougher than the jv league we call the pac 10, the schedule is still a lot harder for the sec because we play at least 8 tough games as opposed to the pac 10's 3 games. if you say the pac 10 is better than you are a stupid pac 10 fan. the sec is by far the best conference and theres no denying it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-85326424496879153702008-07-21T12:24:00.000-07:002008-07-21T12:24:00.000-07:00I'm a Tennessee fan and would rather see them play...I'm a Tennessee fan and would rather see them play Southern Cal than UAB, espically at home. However, there is not that much difference between Tennessee's OOC schedule over the last ten years and USC's. USC has played fourteen and Tennessee has played seven a difference of .7 games per year. USC played N. D. 5 times Hawaii 2 times and Nebraska, Arkansas, BYU, Auburn, Colorado, Kansas State and FSU once each. Tennessee played Memphis and Notre Dame twice and Syracuse, Miami of Fl and Cal once each. During that decade Tennessee also played twice at Auburn, twice at Death Valley (LSU) and five times in Athens, GA and five times in The Swamp (UF). I'll leave it up to others to interpet these stats, but I believe that the original post leaves out a lot of stats that really do not support the argument. I'd also like to stress the fact that OOC games are scheduled several years ahead. So basing the difficulty of playing a certain team on what they did the year before you played them doesn't make any sense. If you had scheduled FSU in 1999 for a game in 2006 or 2007 you wouldn't have expected the lesser team that you got. <BR/>AndyTAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-47256046620262300342008-07-13T14:04:00.000-07:002008-07-13T14:04:00.000-07:00It seems pretty fair to say that something is wron...It seems pretty fair to say that something is wrong with the United States when the most debate between people with different ideas comes between sports fans and their favorite amateur teams. <BR/><BR/>I know...it is very important to have 18-24 year old "students" proving your allegiance that you hold more strongly for their team than for your own country. Be proud.<BR/><BR/>College sports are a waste of money and should be done away with...This country is going splat and its apparent when we stress college athletics over college academics--you know the thing college was supposed to be about.<BR/><BR/>I'm sure you all have favorite college teams in China too...Oh wait. Hmmmmm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-90867204136679623792008-07-10T10:20:00.000-07:002008-07-10T10:20:00.000-07:00WizardofHogz:Get over it. Ed is right. You're co...WizardofHogz:<BR/><BR/>Get over it. Ed is right. You're coming across as a pretty crazy/obsessed/myopic.<BR/><BR/>You're more interested in trying to prove [insert favorite team/conference here] is better rather than objectively looking at the data.<BR/><BR/>Take a deep breath.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-24705501902908241192008-07-09T09:53:00.000-07:002008-07-09T09:53:00.000-07:00THANK YOU Pete!FINALLY, someone who gets it. Usin...THANK YOU Pete!<BR/><BR/>FINALLY, someone who gets it. Using a "one size fits all" BCS or non-BCS label is not nearly as important as WHICH of those teams you play.<BR/><BR/>In a related issue, is it "better" to play four mediocre "BCS conference" teams or three "directional schools" and ONE "BIG DOG" (Ohio State, Texas, USC, Florida State, etc.) who it will really mean something to beat?<BR/><BR/><BR/>Ed's (the author) analysis is interesting, but does not go as far as it needs to in order to yield meaningful results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-66521749553642600882008-07-08T08:28:00.000-07:002008-07-08T08:28:00.000-07:00There is an assumption by some that non-BCS = cupc...There is an assumption by some that non-BCS = cupcake. I think this is a questionable assumption, but it is one that can be made. There are some teams who are not BCS teams and even some 1AA teams that are not cupcakes and may (consistently/recently) be stronger teams than BCS teams.<BR/><BR/>Scheduling Boise State (or maybe Appalachian State) may be a more challenging game than Vanderbilt or Minnesota/Purdue or Iowa State or Connecticut.<BR/><BR/>If you want to discuss which conference is the best (or which team is the best) I suggest including an unbiased system, such as Sagarin. The SEC is consistently among the top conferences, but several of the best teams in other conferences were ranked higher (USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, for instance). <BR/><BR/>Personally, I would like to see strength of schedule and margin of victory (and home field advantage) back in the mix. Sagarin's predictor includes these. There is a difference between beating Miami of Ohio by 2 points at home and beating USC by 20 points in Southern California. This should not be the exclusive system for me as games like Michigan against Florida were not as close as they may have appeared by the final score. As soon as Oregon lost Dixon they were nowhere near the best team in the country (which they may have been when healthy at mid-season).<BR/><BR/>Florida has Florida State and Miami on the schedule for 2008. When they were scheduled they were both considered to be Top 5 or Top 10 programs. Now they are 2 teams with very good defenses and little offense and may be overachieving to finish in the Top 25.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-19211367924916875262008-07-05T08:15:00.000-07:002008-07-05T08:15:00.000-07:00My bad, Washington St. won the Pac-10 but lost the...My bad, Washington St. won the Pac-10 but lost the Rose Bowl in 2002.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-3098481559286812642008-07-05T08:11:00.000-07:002008-07-05T08:11:00.000-07:00Not to mention OSU's games with N. Champs Texas in...Not to mention OSU's games with N. Champs Texas in 05 & 06, NC State with Philip Rivers in 03, and Washington St. in 02 when they won the Rose Bowl.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-1104749249892206152008-07-05T08:08:00.000-07:002008-07-05T08:08:00.000-07:00I agree OSU's non-conference schedule in 07 was we...I agree OSU's non-conference schedule in 07 was weak, but as others have pointed out, Washington was scheduled before the went down the tubes, so not entirely their fault.<BR/><BR/>Also, OSU should be looked upon as the model team for non-conference scheduling from 08 on out:<BR/><BR/>2008: @ USC<BR/>2009: USC<BR/>2010: Miami FL (recent recruiting should have them back towards the top of the NCAA)<BR/>2011: @ Miami FL<BR/>2012: Cal - TBA<BR/>2013: Cal - TBA<BR/>2014: V. Tech - TBA<BR/>2015: V. Tech - TBA<BR/>2016: Oklahoma - TBA<BR/>2017: Oklahoma - TBA<BR/>2018: @ Tennessee<BR/>2019: Tennessee<BR/><BR/>Now, a lot can happen between now and 2019, and their other games are against lesser competition (no FCS teams after 08, however). You can't deny that they are doing non-conference scheduling the right way up in Columbus.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-65907892632684330272008-07-04T18:19:00.000-07:002008-07-04T18:19:00.000-07:00UConn hasn't been I-A for 10 years, so of course t...UConn hasn't been I-A for 10 years, so of course they don't have many OOC road games vs. BCS teams.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-72566747002877048232008-07-03T18:45:00.000-07:002008-07-03T18:45:00.000-07:00The Big 10 Championship game is played each year b...The Big 10 Championship game is played each year by Ohio State and Michigan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15857498.post-42233813096947608852008-07-03T17:59:00.000-07:002008-07-03T17:59:00.000-07:00ask Michigan what they though of their cupcake las...ask Michigan what they though of their cupcake last yearAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com